🥇International Economics Unit 6 – Foreign Exchange Markets

What's the Big Deal?

• Foreign exchange markets facilitate international trade, investment, and financial transactions by enabling the conversion of one currency into another
• Largest financial market in the world with a daily trading volume exceeding $6.6 trillion (as of 2019)
• Plays a crucial role in determining the relative values of different currencies, which affects the competitiveness of a country's exports and imports
• Influences the balance of payments, which measures the flow of money between a country and the rest of the world
• Impacts the global allocation of capital and resources by affecting the attractiveness of investments in different countries
• Reflects and responds to economic, political, and social events, making it a barometer of global economic health
• Enables businesses to expand internationally by facilitating cross-border transactions and reducing currency risk
  • Allows companies to invoice in their domestic currency, reducing exposure to exchange rate fluctuations
  • Provides access to a wider range of financing options through international capital markets

Key Players and Market Structure

• Commercial and investment banks act as market makers, providing liquidity by constantly buying and selling currencies
• Central banks intervene in the market to stabilize their domestic currency or achieve monetary policy objectives
• Multinational corporations engage in the market to facilitate international trade and investment
• Institutional investors (hedge funds, pension funds) participate for speculative or hedging purposes
• Retail investors access the market through brokers or online trading platforms
• Interbank market accounts for the majority of transactions, where banks trade with each other
• Over-the-counter (OTC) market structure, meaning transactions are conducted directly between counterparties rather than on a centralized exchange
• High liquidity and tight bid-ask spreads due to the market's size and global nature
  • Bid-ask spread represents the difference between the price at which a currency can be bought (bid) and sold (ask)
  • Tight spreads indicate low transaction costs and high market efficiency

Currency Pairs and Exchange Rates

• Currencies are traded in pairs, with the value of one currency expressed in terms of another (EUR/USD, GBP/JPY)
• Base currency is the first currency in the pair, while the second is the quote currency
• Exchange rate represents the price of the base currency in terms of the quote currency
  • For example, if EUR/USD = 1.20, it means 1 euro can be exchanged for 1.20 US dollars
• Major currency pairs include USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD, and NZD
• Minor currency pairs are less frequently traded and often include currencies of emerging markets
• Cross currency pairs do not include the US dollar (EUR/GBP, AUD/JPY)
• Spot exchange rate refers to the current market price for immediate delivery
• Forward exchange rate is the agreed-upon price for a future transaction, reflecting interest rate differentials and market expectations

Factors Influencing Exchange Rates

• Interest rates: Higher interest rates attract foreign capital, increasing demand for the domestic currency and causing appreciation
• Inflation rates: Countries with lower inflation rates tend to have stronger currencies as their purchasing power is preserved
• Economic growth and stability: Strong economic performance and political stability boost confidence in a currency
• Balance of trade: A trade surplus (more exports than imports) increases demand for a country's currency, while a deficit has the opposite effect
• Government debt: High levels of public debt can lead to currency depreciation if investors lose confidence in the government's ability to repay
• Political events and geopolitical risks: Elections, policy changes, and international tensions can impact currency values
• Speculation and market sentiment: Traders' expectations and risk appetite can drive short-term currency movements
  • Carry trades, where investors borrow in low-interest currencies to invest in high-yield ones, can amplify trends

Types of Transactions and Trading

• Spot transactions involve the immediate exchange of currencies at the current market rate, with settlement typically occurring within two business days
• Forward transactions are agreements to buy or sell a specific amount of currency at a predetermined rate on a future date, used for hedging or speculation
• Futures contracts are standardized forward agreements traded on exchanges, offering greater liquidity and lower counterparty risk
• Options give the holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) a currency at a specific price (strike) on or before a certain date (expiration)
• Swaps involve the simultaneous buying and selling of currencies, often used to hedge long-term currency exposures or to exploit interest rate differentials
• Margin trading allows investors to leverage their positions by borrowing funds from the broker, amplifying potential gains and losses
• Algorithmic trading uses computer programs to automatically execute trades based on predefined rules and market conditions
  • High-frequency trading (HFT) strategies aim to profit from small price discrepancies and contribute to market liquidity

Exchange Rate Systems and Regimes

• Floating exchange rates are determined by market forces of supply and demand, with little or no government intervention (USD, EUR, JPY)
• Fixed exchange rates are pegged to another currency or a basket of currencies, with the central bank committed to maintaining the peg (HKD to USD)
• Managed float or dirty float systems allow for market-determined rates with occasional central bank intervention to stabilize the currency (CNY)
• Currency boards are a strict form of fixed exchange rates, where the domestic currency is backed by a foreign reserve currency at a fixed rate (BGN to EUR)
• Monetary unions involve multiple countries sharing a single currency and monetary policy (Eurozone)
• Dollarization occurs when a country adopts a foreign currency as its own, often to combat hyperinflation or instability (Ecuador, El Salvador)
• The choice of exchange rate regime depends on a country's economic goals, size, trade relationships, and vulnerability to shocks
  • Fixed rates provide stability but limit monetary policy autonomy, while floating rates allow for flexibility but can be volatile

Risk Management and Hedging

• Exchange rate risk arises from the potential for currency fluctuations to impact the value of international investments, trade, or financial obligations
• Transaction risk refers to the possibility that the value of a foreign currency-denominated transaction will change between initiation and settlement
• Translation risk involves the impact of exchange rate changes on the reported financial statements of multinational corporations when converting foreign subsidiaries' results
• Economic risk encompasses the long-term effects of currency movements on a company's competitive position and cash flows
• Hedging strategies aim to mitigate exchange rate risk by taking offsetting positions in currency derivatives or other financial instruments
• Forward contracts lock in a future exchange rate, eliminating uncertainty for a specific transaction or period
• Options provide flexibility by allowing the holder to benefit from favorable currency movements while limiting downside risk
• Currency swaps can be used to match the currency composition of assets and liabilities, reducing translation risk
  • Cross-currency swaps involve exchanging principal and interest payments in different currencies

Global Impact and Economic Implications

• Exchange rates affect the relative prices of goods and services across countries, influencing trade flows and competitiveness
• Currency appreciation makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper, potentially worsening the trade balance and slowing economic growth
• Currency depreciation can boost exports and domestic production, but may also lead to higher inflation and reduced purchasing power
• Persistent trade imbalances can lead to currency tensions and calls for protectionist measures, such as tariffs or currency manipulation accusations
• Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to exchange rate shocks, as they often have less diversified economies and limited access to hedging instruments
• Currency crises can occur when a country's currency experiences a sudden and severe depreciation, often due to unsustainable economic policies or external pressures
• The international monetary system, including the role of reserve currencies (USD) and international financial institutions (IMF), shapes the global currency landscape
• Central bank policies, such as quantitative easing or interest rate changes, can have spillover effects on other countries' currencies and financial markets
  • Policy divergence between major central banks can lead to increased currency volatility and capital flows